Report of the Working Group on Long-Term Fiscal Planning (Phase One)

Contents

		Page
This link will open in a new windowAcknowledgement
This link will open in a new windowExecutive Summary		iii
This link will open in a new windowIntroduction		1
Chapter 1	This link will open in a new windowFiscal Health Check	5
Chapter 2	This link will open in a new windowMacroeconomic Assumptions	33
Chapter 3	This link will open in a new windowExpenditure Projections	51
Chapter 4	This link will open in a new windowRevenue Projections	87
Chapter 5	This link will open in a new windowFiscal Sustainability	107
Chapter 6	This link will open in a new windowFiscal Measures Adopted in Other Economies	119
Chapter 7	This link will open in a new windowProposed Fiscal Measures	155
Annexes
A.	This link will open in a new windowMembership of the Working Group on Long-Term Fiscal Planning	197
B.	This link will open in a new windowTechnical Considerations Underlying the Key Macroeconomic Assumptions under the Base Case	199
C.	This link will open in a new windowSpecification of the Shock Case	215
D.	This link will open in a new windowExpenditure Projections - Assumptions, Limitations and Considerations	217
E.	This link will open in a new windowEconometric Modelling for Revenue Projections	229
F.	This link will open in a new windowProjections of Government Revenue and Expenditure - Results of Sensitivity Analyses	237
G.	This link will open in a new windowEconomic and Fiscal Position of Hong Kong	239
H.	This link will open in a new windowIllustrative Presentation of Operating Account and Capital Account	241
Financial Statistics (This link will open in a new windowPDF) (This link will open in a new windowExcel)		243

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A tool to illustrate various projections under different macroeconomic assumptions and expenditure scenarios is available here.